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Sunday, January 5, 2014

Game: San Francisco @ Green Bay 



PreviewThe Green Bay Packers host the San Francisco 49ers in an NFC wild-card showdown that could be one of the coldest playoff games in NFL history. The National Weather Service forecast called for a high temperature in Green Bay Today of 2 degrees, with north-northwest winds making it feel more like minus-15 to minus-20.The coldest NFL game on record is the 1967 championship game, known as the “Ice Bowl” won by the Packers 21-17 over the Dallas Cowboys at Lambeau Field on New Year’s Eve. The temperature dipped to minus-13, and the wind chill that day was minus-48.

Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers has three straight failures in game-planning to stop Colin Kaepernick, the 49ers' versatile quarterback. Back in the 2012 opener, Kaepernick came in for one play and sprung a 17-yard run, which set up David Akers' 63-yard field goal to end the half. Four months later, the 49ers unleashed Kaepernick on Capers, using the read-option to total 323 rushing yards, 579 total yards and 45 points. Kaepernick finished with 417 combined yards (record 181 rushing) and four touchdowns (two rushing). Hellbent on ensuring the read-option wouldn't embarrass his defense again, Capers spent an offseason preparing to stop the evolving trend in the 2013 season opener. While the Packers contained the look and mostly shut down the run, Kaepernick instead put up career numbers passing the football, throwing for 412 yards and three touchdowns.Overall, Kaepernick has accounted for 878 yards (203 rushing) and seven total touchdowns in the last two games against the Packers.
The Packers finished 2013 ranked 24th in points (26.8 per game) and passing yards (247.3) and 25th in total yards (372.3) and rushing yards (125.0).There's simply very little that Green Bay's defense can claim to be above-average at, especially with Clay Matthews on the sidelines. The 49ers may not rack up yards  24th in the NFL this season, but they can score (25.4 per game), win in the running game (137.6) and protect the football (second in the NFL in giveaways with 18). This will likely be another bad matchup for the Packers defense. Capers must find a way to limit his defense's predictable shortcomings on Sunday. Running the football will be important to both sides but may be more so for the Packers.
Green Bay hasn't had problems throwing against the 49ers, who have given up 283 passing yards a game to the Packers over the last three meetings. And considering San Francisco allowed nearly 750 passing yards in the last two games of 2013, that trend will likely continue Sunday. This season, Green Bay went 0-4 when rushing for less than 100 yards in a game. On the flip side of that equation, the 49ers allowed 139.3 rushing yards a game in their four losses in 2013. And in the 12 wins, that average dropped to just 81.5. The 49ers rank fourth overall in rushing defense and ninth in yards per carry allowed. The Packers have run the football considerably better this season, ranking in the top 10 of rushing for all but one week of 2013. But large chunks of their rushing yards have come against the likes of the Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings and the  Dallas Cowboys.The 49ers' front seven is an entirely different animal. A winning performance today will likely require Green Bay's best effort on the ground. The Packers have rushed for just 70.6 yards a game in the last three with the 49ers, including just 63 in the 2013 opener. Overall, Green Bay has just 49 total rushes over those three games—which highlights both the ineffectiveness of the run against the 49ers and Mike McCarthy's unwillingness to stick with it. 

Spread: -3

PredictionUnless the 49ers crumble under the frozen conditions, the Packers won't be good enough on defense to hang with a bonafide Super Bowl contender. 49ers win this one 34-20.





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